Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.179252 12.816750 14.583770 16.628921 18.927288 21.426866 24.347440
2025-05-11 8.572128 10.740094 13.265023 16.409365 20.205490 24.625056 30.143511
2025-05-18 7.311496 9.699288 12.619015 16.426553 21.232468 27.066190 34.649174
2025-05-25 6.418333 8.961745 12.209586 16.620713 22.408950 29.693305 39.493869
2025-06-01 5.661547 8.271430 11.733752 16.605868 23.217275 31.799085 43.688970
2025-06-08 4.995807 7.614351 11.213537 16.446544 23.769168 33.545129 47.452837
2025-06-15 4.537413 7.187703 10.949580 16.582536 24.684298 35.773923 51.923769
2025-06-22 4.247116 6.968877 10.946711 17.063396 26.080243 38.700255 57.463977
2025-06-29 3.819395 6.494658 10.521495 16.880723 26.488098 40.234662 61.095958
2025-07-06 3.295549 5.814893 9.724096 16.068468 25.896142 40.275867 62.553045
2025-07-13 3.113173 5.665288 9.726728 16.468681 27.129175 43.015370 68.043525
2025-07-20 2.930340 5.495463 9.679061 16.776938 28.224264 45.584193 73.375959
2025-07-27 2.675152 5.183029 9.382995 16.677346 28.692364 47.255238 77.481191
2025-08-03 2.420115 4.845837 9.017905 16.435497 28.912856 48.548623 81.061445
2025-08-10 2.238824 4.622564 8.825112 16.460274 29.553943 50.510040 85.742777
2025-08-17 2.101512 4.467177 8.736448 16.652130 30.474223 52.946455 91.267497
2025-08-24 1.946449 4.261881 8.540617 16.638185 31.036585 54.816521 95.944494
2025-08-31 1.785996 4.029520 8.275547 16.478263 31.330204 56.245711 99.945719
2025-09-07 1.679077 3.894242 8.179385 16.614602 32.140987 58.559276 105.484785
2025-09-14 1.622734 3.858162 8.268250 17.096254 33.585330 61.996022 113.028037
2025-09-21 1.493546 3.654408 8.014922 16.913279 33.814238 63.353868 117.091903
2025-09-28 1.308854 3.310069 7.454504 16.099613 32.834592 62.560975 117.418852
2025-10-05 1.263656 3.273297 7.513923 16.500521 34.135099 65.823318 124.901146